Syria is a mess, symptomatic of factors that we don’t want to face as none of them are solvable in the short-term.

The Warring Groups

The Shi’a (‘Government’)

By 2018 a minority of Shi’a groups has taken on 150+ Sunni groups, and defeated them.

This ‘government’ is supported by Russia (it’s ex-communist patron), Iran (their Shi’a brethren), various Orthodox sub-sects (with their Orthodox Russian patrons), Hizbullah (Lebanese Shi’a militia) and dirt-poor Afghan-Pakistani Shia individuals (‘blast-absorbers’).

This collective diversity is all about leveraging advantages, with an eye on the post-war gravy train. Their fears are deep-seated; their ambitions fantastical.

The Sunni (Rebels)

In the north, the Sunnis are supported by Turkey who are hoping to check the political aspirations of its Kurdish population while supporting their Sunni brethren it once ruled.

In the south, the rebels are supported by Israel, which wants to sustain a buffer land between itself and the Hizbullah. The Sunni monarchies throw in their weight by pouring oil dollars on this fire.

Fearful of the fatal Shi’a pincer in the south and doubtful of the West-backed Kurdish north, the Iraqi Sunni elements have put the Shi’a Udwaani of the 11th-12th century CE to shame.

The Kurds (Nationalist)  

Based in the north, and having a communist and a fringe-Shi’a background, they are a darling of anti-Muslim elite for their ‘moderation’.

In reality, they are usefulness because they are willing to fight their powerful neighbours. Their wings get clipped when they fight amongst themselves.

The Abetting Countries

Turkey

The Turks fear that the Kurdish population inside Turkey will agitate to partition Turkey. So, Turkish leaders have promised their population that it will prevent the Kurds from having access to the Mediterranean Sea.

Turkey was partitioned a hundred years ago by the colonial Western powers. It remains very sensitive to any assurances by the same people around the same topic.

Israel

Israel has promised many things to many Muslim tribes.

The Kurds are hoping their oil wells will get a safe pipeline to the ocean. In the south of Syria, moral and material support is provided to the rag-tag Sunni rebel groups, hoping to hold-off the Shi’a militiamen of Hizbullah who wants to regain their Golan Heights.

The Gulf Monarchies

They are worried about in the democratic influence of Iran, which has an open policy of supporting any rebellion against any monarchy in the Middle East.

Of course, an overland oil pipeline via Iraq/Syria to Europe certainly helps to cut the transportation costs of Peninsular oil. Helping their Sunni Arabs contributes to the emotional package for war.

Iran

The existential question for Iran is the continuation of Iran Revolution, and its system of Vilayat-e-Faqih. The regime has manoeuvred itself into a corner, and their is no escaping the fate of so many other revolutions.

Worse, it fears its destiny will be written by its Iranian subjects. To counter such an unwelcome fate, it’s strategy is two pronged: 1) to mobilise the willing Shi’a from all over the world; 2) lead an full frontal offence against an age-old enemy, the Sunni, in the form of challenging the tyrannical institution of monarchy.

Syria is an opportunity to showcase its determination and grit.

Russia

Called a second-rate power in early 21st century, Russia is determined to have its say in its near-borders.

Since Peter-the-Great, Russia has its aspirations coupled with Europe. Though it is called to lead the Orthodox co-religionists of Arab and Slavic worlds. Now, Chinese wants to be best friends.

With friends across the world and a wounded pride, Russia is determined to keep Syria.

The US

Finally, the Sheriff wants to assert its authority. Though, that is dented to its behaviour of preferential treatments, heavy-handedness and self-interest.

Impact of Syrian Civil-War

Muslims

The Syrian Civil-War has gutted the dreams of Ihya’ Movements that began in the early 20th century. After a hundred years of political aspiration, in the name of Islam and with idealistic intentions, they are being made to blink with the mirrors of Syrian Civil-War. They will seek refuge in the ideals of Protestant Liberalism, sooner or later.

For the average inhabitant of this globe, Muslims became the easy targets of hate and discrimination. Yes, Petro-dollars could keep some mouths shut. Yes, some academic achievements helped few chins held high. But the bottom-line was: an average Muslim was burdened with the rage of an average other of our global village.

Non-Muslims

The 21st century will be the defining milestone for humanity: the internet joined us to make the globe a village, and the media separated the same village into Muslims vs Non-Muslims.

Time will tell if Muslims will find a way to help their fellow villagers embrace them. Having mass illiteracy of ~60% may actually help this process in the long term, however frustrating the short-term pain be.